Storm Update: One More Round This Evening

After last night, I know a lot of you are on edge. That makes sense. But tonight is not the same setup.

Let’s walk through it together.

THE SETUP TODAY

This afternoon has been… messy.

• A lot of cloud cover across Middle TN
• Some breaks of sun here and there
• The atmosphere was worked over this morning

That means the “fuel” for storms is trying to recover, not fully there yet.

WHAT TONIGHT DEPENDS ON

There are two big factors:

1. 01How much sunshine we get→ More sun = more instability = stronger storms
2. 02How well the atmosphere recovers→ Last night knocked things down pretty hard

IMPORTANT TREND IN THE DATA

This is key and honestly reassuring:

Models consistently show storms weakening as they move into Middle Tennessee

That’s not just one run. That’s been a consistent signal.

One likely reason:

• Ongoing storms to our south (Alabama)
• Limiting moisture return from the Gulf

Less moisture = less fuel

TIMING

• Most likely window: 6 PM – 10 PM
• Could see a stray storm earlier, but main cluster comes in from the west.

This is NOT an overnight event That alone is a big improvement from last night.

THREATS TONIGHT

• Damaging Winds (up to ~60 mph)
• Hail (up to quarter size)
• Very low tornado risk

Let me say that again clearly:

Tornado risk is VERY LOW tonight. Much lower than what we dealt with yesterday/earlier this morning.

OFFICIAL PROBABILITIES

• 15% wind
• 15% hail
• 2% tornado

WHAT IT WILL LIKELY LOOK LIKE

Most likely scenario:

• A cluster of storms moves in from the west
• Some brief stronger pockets possible
• Overall trend → gradual weakening as it moves east

REAL TALK (FOR THE ANXIETY)

This is not last night.

Not even close.

Yes, storms are coming.

Yes, a few could be strong.

But:

• The environment is less favorable overall
• The tornado threat is very low
• Timing is before bedtime for most people

That’s three big positives.

RAINFALL

• Additional rain expected
• Most areas stay under 1 inch
• Locally higher amounts in storms

Ground can handle it, Flooding risk remains low

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO?

Same simple plan:

• Keep alerts ON
• Follow NWS, local mets, tspotters
• Don’t rely on sirens

And I’ve got you covered:

• I’ll be posting updates
• If warnings are issued → I go live

Bulletpoints:

• One more round of storms this evening
• 6–10 PM window
• Wind and hail are the main concerns
• Tornado risk is very low
• Storms likely weaken as they move in

You made it through last night. Tonight is a lower-end, more manageable setup.

Stay aware, but you can breathe a little easier with this one.