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Today has turned into one of those classic late-spring Middle Tennessee weather days where the atmosphere is trying to organize… but is fighting itself at the same time. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southern and Middle Tennessee under a MARGINAL RISK (Level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms today. While this is NOT a major severe weather outbreak setup, there are still enough ingredients in place for a few storms to briefly become strong or even marginally s

After last night, I know a lot of you are on edge. That makes sense. But tonight is not the same setup. Let’s walk through it together. THE SETUP TODAY This afternoon has been… messy. • A lot of cloud cover across Middle TN • Some breaks of sun here and there • The atmosphere was worked over this morning That means the “fuel” for storms is trying to recover, not fully there yet. WHAT TONIGHT DEPENDS ON There are two big factors: 1. How much sunshine we get→ More sun = more in

We’re dealing with two rounds of storms over the next ~36–48 hours. Not a clean, one-hit event—this is a multi-phase system. Round 1: Tonight (late evening → overnight). Round 2: Tuesday evening → Tuesday night And here’s the truth: This is a low probability, but potentially impactful setup. Meaning not everyone sees severe weather, but some could. 🛰️ WHAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS DOING We’ve got: • Plenty of instability (fuel) • Strong wind shear (organization) • A cold front +