Winter Storm Incoming: What to Expect, Why It’s Complicated, and How to Prepare

A Winter Storm Warning will be in effect from midnight Friday night through 6 PM Sunday evening for much of Middle Tennessee. Confidence has continued to increase that this system will bring significant winter weather impacts, particularly related to ice and mixed precipitation.

While exact snow and ice amounts are still being refined, the impact message is already clear: Travel will become hazardous late Friday night and worsen through the weekend and power outages and tree damage cannot be ruled out if freezing rain totals end up on the higher end. Brutally cold air will follow the storm, with temperatures near 0° early next week, slowing recovery. The NWS will issue their official amounts later today/tonight

This is a complex winter storm and understanding why it’s been difficult to forecast helps explain what we’re expecting.

Why This Forecast Has Been Tricky

It has become increasingly likely that we see all forms of frozen precipitation with this system: snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Models have been fairly consistent in showing that freezing rain and sleet may play a larger role than snow, although most locations will likely see some of each. The challenge comes down to temperature differences of just 1–2 degrees in the atmosphere.

To set the stage, the precipitation-type graphic above shows how snow, sleet, and freezing rain form. Small temperature changes aloft not just at the surface determine whether snowflakes stay frozen, partially melt and refreeze, or melt completely and freeze on contact at the ground.

When temperatures near the surface are below freezing (even in the mid-20s), but a thin layer of warmer air exists several thousand feet above the ground, snow can melt into rain and then freeze instantly when it hits roads, trees, and power lines. That’s freezing rain and it’s why a temperature of 31° vs. 32.5° aloft can make a huge difference.

This fine margin is why there has been uncertainty and why forecast details have evolved with time.

Timing: What We’re Watching Right Now

Based on the latest guidance and briefings from National Weather Service, here is the current thinking on timing:

Late Friday Night into Early Saturday Morning: Precipitation begins, likely starting as snow, with temperatures already well below freezing. Any precipitation that falls will stick quickly, and travel conditions may begin deteriorating before sunrise.

Saturday into Saturday Night: As warmer air moves in above the surface, precipitation is expected to transition to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. This period represents the highest concern for travel impacts and potential power issues.

There is a low chance that some areas briefly rise above freezing Saturday night. If that occurs, it would be short-lived, with temperatures quickly dropping back below freezing.

Sunday: As the surface low moves northeast and colder air rushes back in, precipitation may change back to snow before tapering off.

This timeline is not set in stone, but it represents a reasonable, big-picture view of current expectations.

Snow and Ice Probabilities

As the freezing rain signal has strengthened, probabilities for impactful ice have increased:

• Chances of greater than 0.10" of ice for N Sumner Co is 65% and S Sumner Co is 75%

• Chances of greater than 0.25' of ice for N Sumner Co is 50% and S Sumner Co is 60%

• Chances of greater than 2 inches of Snow for N Sumner Co is 90 % and S Sumner Co is 80%

• Chances of greater than 4 inches of Snow for N Sumner Co is 50% and S Sumner is 40%

In general terms:➡️ Higher snow totals are favored farther north➡️ Higher odds of ice accumulation are favored farther south

These numbers will continue to fluctuate, but confidence is increasing that We will see a mixture of both.

Expected Impacts

It’s important to understand that a decrease in snow totals does NOT mean a decrease in impacts. In many cases, freezing rain can be more disruptive than snow.

Travel: Travel issues are expected to begin late Friday night into early Saturday and worsen through Saturday and Saturday night. If you have errands to run, it would be wise to complete them by Friday evening.

Power Concerns: With freezing rain in the forecast, power outages and tree damage are possible. Not guaranteed but possible enough that preparation makes sense. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

If you have travel plans this weekend, including flights, it would be wise to strongly reconsider or have backup plans in place.

Brutal Cold Follows the Storm

Once precipitation ends, the weather does not immediately improve.

• Temperatures may not rise above freezing until Tuesday or Wednesday

Overnight lows Monday and Tuesday could drop near or below 0°•

Melting during the day will be slow, with refreezing at night

This prolonged cold will extend travel concerns and increase the risk of burst pipes. Protect exposed plumbing and consider dripping faucets during the coldest nights.

Power Outage & Cold Safety Reminders

The graphics highlight important safety steps to keep in mind if power outages occur during or after this winter storm especially with dangerously cold temperatures expected to follow.

Ice accumulation can bring down trees and power lines, and even short outages in extreme cold can become serious quickly. These reminders focus on staying warm safely, using generators properly, and checking on neighbors, especially the elderly and those who may be more vulnerable.

If you do lose power, avoid risky heat sources, never run generators indoors or near openings, and take simple steps to conserve heat inside your home. Once your household is safe, checking on neighbors can make a real difference during prolonged cold.

These are the kinds of impacts we don’t always think about during a winter storm — but they’re just as important as the forecast itself.

Weather Call and Social Media Platforms

If you want real-time alerts delivered directly to your phone, WeatherCall is a powerful tool during events like this. WeatherCall sends location-specific warnings and updates for your area, helping you stay informed even if you’re not actively checking social media. During winter storms especially those involving ice and power outages having timely alerts can make a real difference. Below is the QR code to sign up!

This forecast will continue to evolve as higher-resolution data comes in. I’ll be posting frequent updates, graphics, and live discussions as we fine-tune precipitation type, timing, and impacts.

Be sure to follow along on all of the social media platforms so you don’t miss critical updates as this storm unfolds. Link below takes you to my linktree that has all of my social media accounts!

https://linktr.ee/SumnerCountyWX

I'll be live on YouTube, X, and FB TONIGHT at 7PM for a deep dive and Q&A on this Upcoming Snow/Ice Storm.

Final Thoughts

This has been one of the more difficult winter forecasts in recent memory, and that complexity is not uncommon with mixed-precipitation events. High-resolution models are now coming into range, and confidence will continue to improve as we move closer.

Details may still shift especially regarding how much freezing rain vs. sleet vs. snow we see and preparations may need to adjust accordingly. The focus has increasingly shifted from a snow-only event to one where ice plays a significant role.

Updates will continue across all social platforms, with additional blog updates as new information becomes available.

Stay informed, stay prepared, and take this storm seriously: calmly, thoughtfully, and without panic.