Today - Wednesday Morning Storms Update

We’re dealing with two rounds of storms over the next ~36–48 hours. Not a clean, one-hit event—this is a multi-phase system.

Round 1: Tonight (late evening → overnight).

Round 2: Tuesday evening → Tuesday night

And here’s the truth: This is a low probability, but potentially impactful setup. Meaning not everyone sees severe weather, but some could.

🛰️ WHAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS DOING

We’ve got:

• Plenty of instability (fuel)

• Strong wind shear (organization)

• A cold front + pre-frontal trough (trigger)

That combo? It supports strong storms, but not necessarily a widespread outbreak here locally.

Upstream (Missouri/Illinois)? Different story, more intense.

By the time it gets to us, things start to evolve and weaken some—but not completely.

ROUND 1: TONIGHT (MAIN FOCUS)

TIMING

• Earliest: 7–9 PM (isolated ahead of line)

• Most likely: 11 PM – 2 AM (Main Line)

• Ending: by ~3–5 AM

THREATS

• Damaging Winds (MAIN THREAT)→ 60–70 mph possible in strongest storms

• Hail→ Some storms could produce hail

• Tornado (LOW, NOT ZERO)→ Mainly with storms ahead of the line

Concern-O-Meter is now at a 4 (out of 10) mainly for Damaging Wind Threat.

OFFICIAL PROBABILITIES

• 15% wind

• 5% hail

• 2–5% tornado

This is not a high-end outbreak locally but it’s enough to take seriously and be ready

KEY DETAIL PEOPLE MISS

Storms ahead of the main line = higher tornado risk

Main line = wind threat

That’s the battlefield tonight.

REAL TALK (for anxiety)

This is NOT a “everyone gets hit hard” situation. This is more like:

• Some areas → heavy rain + thunder

• Some areas → strong storms

• A few spots → severe

You are not automatically in the worst-case zone.

WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING

Yeah… it looks messy.

And honestly? That’s the truth.

Broken line

Clusters

Embedded stronger pocket

Messy = less organized overall… BUT still capable of brief stronger storms

ROUND 2: TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT

TIMING

• Rough window: Late afternoon → overnight

THREATS

• Damaging Winds

• Large Hail

• VERY LOW tornado risk

BIG QUESTION

Does the atmosphere recover after tonight?

If YES → stronger storms possible Tuesday

If NO → weaker, more scattered activity

That’s why tomorrow’s forecast will be refined in real-time.]

RAINFALL (GOOD NEWS ALERT)

• 2–3 inches of rain expected

• Helps drought

Some ponding / standing water

NOT expecting major flooding

PREPAREDNESS (THIS IS YOUR POWER)

Let’s keep this simple and effective:

HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS

Do NOT rely on one source.

Best combo:• 📱 Wireless Emergency Alerts (phone)• 📻 NOAA Weather Radio• 📲 WeatherCall (text/call/email alerts)• 📺 TV Mets / NWS updates

Sirens are OUTDOOR systems. They will NOT reliably wake you up.

TRUSTED SOURCES

Stick with:

• National Weather Service

• Local TV Meteorologists

• Trained spotters (NWS affiliated) Link for list below

(#tSpotter)

That keeps you out of rumor territory.

WHAT I’M DOING FOR YOU

• 🔴 Going LIVE when storms enter Middle TN

• ⚡ Jumping on immediately if warnings are issued

• 📡 Running live radar tracking

• 📲 Posting updates all evening/night

You are NOT doing this alone.

CALM MINDSET (IMPORTANT)

I’m going to be real with you:

This is not a night to panic…but it IS a night to be aware and prepared

Preparation replaces fear.

You’ve got: ✔ Time✔ Information✔ A plan

That’s how we win this.

Summary:

• Storms arrive late tonight into early morning

• Damaging winds = main threat

• Small tornado risk (mainly ahead of line)

• Second round Tuesday evening/night

• Have multiple ways to get warnings

• I’ll be tracking it LIVE in real time

If you’re feeling that storm anxiety creeping in…stay close tonight. I’ll walk you through it step by step.